Montréal, QC · 45.5017° N / 73.5673° W

Charles Jackson

I build software that puts a probability on the future — forecasting engines, agentic systems, full products — then grades every call against what actually happened.

Selected work03 systems
polypredict.gglive · read-only

Polypredict

See where the model disagrees with the market — and whether you can legally act on it.

Polypredict puts its own price-blind probability on every live Polymarket event, shows it against the market with an uncertainty range, and tells you — per bet, per jurisdiction — whether you can legally place it. Read-only by design. Often wrong, never advice.

Blind to the price

The forecaster never sees the market price, so a disagreement is a real opinion — not an echo of the crowd.

Sized to survive

Fractional Kelly over the joint outcome distribution, stress-tested for risk-of-ruin.

Per-bet legality

Your jurisdiction × the bet's category — a card tells you which, with a cited source.

Executable arbitrage

Coherence checks surface real, fillable price inconsistencies across related markets.

Visit Polypredict
  • Python
  • Forecasting
  • Kelly sizing
  • Legality engine
  • Read-only
The front door — the public record
Markets, ranked by model edge
Every resolved call, graded in public
Per-jurisdiction legality, cited
Kelly sizing & risk of ruin
Informed-trading surveillance
Model vs marketmodelmarket
BTC $100k0%+7
Fed cut0%-4
Incumbent0%+7

The model's own probability against the live market price — the gap is the edge, and the forecaster never saw the price.

predictive.companylive · gated

Predictive

An agency whose backend runs itself — and writes down everything it does.

Predictive builds and operates agentic systems for mid-market companies, and the Engine Room is the proof: its own pipeline is worked by an AI that sources companies, scores fit, drafts the outreach, queues the operator's tasks, and journals every action per lead. The operator sets the limits; anything that leaves the building passes a gate. A missing provider key fails closed — disabled honestly, never faked.

The AI works the pipeline

It sources companies, scores fit, qualifies, drafts outreach, and moves the cards — on a schedule or on demand.

Every action journaled

Sourced, scored, drafted, sent — each step lands timestamped in the lead's timeline, auditable after the fact.

Switches and caps

Autopilot, a daily send cap, a call-score floor — the AI works inside limits the operator sets.

Fails closed

No key, no pretend: without a configured provider, sending and calling disable cleanly instead of faking success.

Visit Predictive
  • Agentic ops
  • Claude
  • Next.js
  • Supabase
  • Fail-closed
The front door — a firm for the agentic era
The pipeline — cards the AI moves
Per-lead dossier — fit, score, next action
Sourced, scored, drafted, sent — journaled
Qualified — the AI's case to pursue
Ops — the queue the AI files into

Digital Twins

Your own AI twin — a persona, a mandate, and a memory that persists.

digitaltwins.world is a platform for building an AI twin of yourself: a persona and mandate you define, memory that persists and consolidates what matters, a temperament that adapts to context, and twins that can negotiate and transact with each other on your behalf. Built end-to-end and shipped on Cloudflare Workers.

Persona & mandate

You set who it is and what it's allowed to do — its voice, its remit, its boundaries.

Memory that persists

It remembers across conversations and consolidates what matters, so it gets sharper over time.

Context-gated temperament

Regulated affect — equanimous in business, warm in relationship — so it never gets knocked off tone.

Twins that transact

Yours can negotiate and settle with other people's twins on your behalf — an economy of agents.

Visit Digital Twins
  • Digital twins
  • Next.js
  • Cloudflare Workers
  • Persistent memory
  • Voice
The front door — a faithful digital you
The studio — train your twin
Talk to a twin — it holds the line
Twins negotiate — outcome signed
Double-entry credits, live
The registry — published twins
digitaltwins.worldlive

Your twin is waiting to be created.

Start from the footprint you already have — own it, bound it, and send it into the world.

Create your twinowned by you · mandate-bound · autonomy default-off
About

Built in Montréal.

I've spent the last two years on one question: can software put an honest probability on complex things — a market, a launch, a quarter — and prove it? Predictive is the engine that answer became. Polypredict is how it gets tested in public, price-blind against real markets, graded on what actually resolved.

I ship end-to-end — model, backend, product, design — because a forecast no one can act on is trivia. The craft is calibration: being right exactly as often as you say you'll be.

Operating parametersonline
Role
Agentic systems engineer
Base
Montréal, QC
Stack
TypeScript · Python · ML
Focus
Forecasting & agents
Now
Building Predictive
Contact

Say hello.

Open to ambitious problems in forecasting, agents, and full-stack product.