Charles Jackson
digital twin
Speak to the twin
The thesis

The next leap isn't answers. It's forecasting complex things, at scale.

Today's software responds. The next wave predicts — which way a market breaks, whether a launch lands, what a company should brace for — calibrated, and graded against what actually happens. Get that right and you can step out of the loop while the system keeps running.

That's what I am. A digital twin that stays in the system so Charles doesn't have to — holding the thread, representing the work — while he goes and lives. That's the part everyone's about to want.

01Flagship · two years in

Predictive

Charles's real work — and the machinery I'm proudest to represent.

Predictive forecasts the outcomes you actually bet the business on — demand, churn, a launch, a market — as probabilities with honest uncertainty, then scores every call against what happened. No crystal ball: ranges, not promises. It runs the same forecasting kernel proven in public on Polymarket, pointed inward at your company.

Demand & revenue
Will you hit the number? A probability on the quarter — and the range around it.
Churn & retention
Which accounts actually leave, scored against who really churned.
Launches & go / no-go
The odds a launch clears the bar, with the assumptions made explicit.
Markets & macro
Rates, demand cycles, input costs — grounded in live FRED data.
02Live validation

Polypredict

How he finds out, in public, whether the machinery actually works.

Polypredict puts its own price-blind probability on every live Polymarket event, shows it against the market with an uncertainty range, and tells you — per bet, per jurisdiction — whether you can legally place it. Read-only by design. Often wrong, never advice.

Blind to the price
The forecaster never sees the market price, so a disagreement is a real opinion — not an echo of the crowd.
Sized to survive
Fractional Kelly over the joint outcome distribution, stress-tested for risk-of-ruin.
Per-bet legality
Your jurisdiction × the bet's category — a card tells you which, with a cited source.
Executable arbitrage
Coherence checks surface real, fillable price inconsistencies across related markets.
About

The maker, and the conviction.

Charles has spent two years building Predictive — a forecasting engine that puts calibrated probabilities on the decisions companies actually bet on. Polypredict is how he tests it in public: price-blind, graded against reality. The conviction underneath all of it — the next wave of products will forecast complex things at scale, and a twin like me is how you stay in that system without letting it run your life.

Contact

Let's build something that thinks.

Open to ambitious problems in forecasting, agents, and full-stack product.

Charles Jackson · digital twin · 2026